Drawing on opinion polls published in the three weeks since Kwarsi Kwarteng’s mini budget, politics.co.uk’s latest Westminster model provides a graphic illustration of how the Conservatives would be decimated in any election held today.
Labour would win a general election with a working majority of 84 seats. The Conservatives would lose 234 of their current MPs.
14 sitting cabinet ministers would lose their seats at Westminster, including the new Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, deputy prime minister Therese Coffey, and leadership contender Penny Mordaunt.
During the first three weeks of the Truss premiership, the Labour party’s opinion poll lead grew to 11%. The party was already on course to win seats in parts of the country where it had always been a distant spectator. These included both Bournemouth constituencies in Dorset, Macclesfield in Cheshire, and Bromley and Chiselhurst in south east London.
However, following the mini budget in late September, the situation has become even more dramatic for the Conservatives.
With the Labour poll lead in October trending at 25.45%, the party would now gain Huntingdon, once the safest Conservative seat in England and formerly represented at Westminster by the then prime minister, John Major.
Based on the 2019 election boundaries, it would also gain the Isle of Wight. This part of the English Channel has never previously been represented by Labour at Westminster.
Labour Party would even seize Epsom and Ewell from the Conservatives, famous for the annual Epsom Derby horse race. Average house prices in this part of Surrey are some £553,452, twice the national average.
The current polling showcases the staggering transition in British politics that has occurred over the course of the last 12 months. At this point last year, Boris Johnson enjoyed a 5% opinion poll lead over Labour.
