Afghanistan ‘not Cameron’s big priority’
The struggle against the Taliban is distracting Britain from its main strategic priority, Chatham House’s director Robin Niblett has claimed.
Speaking in an interview with politics.co.uk, Dr Niblett said managing the shift in global economic power from west to east was the bigger picture Britain had to deal with.
He suggested an “over-focus” on the Afghanistan struggle, as Britain’s biggest foreign policy commitment, left David Cameron’s government “in a very difficult and dangerous position”.
“My feeling is both Barack Obama and David Cameron… have a view that Afghanistan is not the strategic priority,” Dr Niblett said.
“How do you deal with that? How do you find the time to do your big China, India strategy, when you have to be focused on doing a good job in Afghanistan? I feel they’re torn.”
The coalition government has already sent major trade delegations to visit India and China. But critics pointed out the Chinese trip only resulted in £900 million of business deals, a fraction of the £20 billion achieved by French president Nicolas Sarkozy.
Dr Niblett said he did not oppose Mr Cameron’s bold initial statements on the world stage, including comments criticising Pakistan’s attitude towards terrorist groups within its borders.
“There’s no point being halfhearted,” he added.
“In a very realpolitik way, I think it was the right call. However, to take all of your government out to China in a way sets you up somewhat for people asking ‘what did you get out of China’?
He suggested a more “softly-softly approach” through the EU, given China has the most respect for Britain because of its economic rather than political power.
India, by contrast, is less impressed by the European Union, “so we should play to our historical connections”.
Even if the Foreign Office gets its relationship with India and China right, the time and energy being devoted to the war in Afghanistan could become a major problem both London and Washington.
“This government is as worried as Barack Obama that the opportunity to be part of this really quite fundamental shift [from west to east]… is going to be completely undermined by an overfocus on Afghanistan,” Dr Niblett warned.
“You’ve got troops on the ground – you have to take it absolutely seriously. For the lives of the soldiers and their families, for your own reputation in terms of being able to competently manage a war – it’s got to be central to your thinking.
“And so if you’re involved in a war that isn’t central to your strategy, you’re in a very difficult and dangerous position.”
