Nuclear deterrent ‘open to doubt’
By Ian Dunt
The future of Britain’s nuclear deterrent is “open to doubt”, not for moral reasons, but technical ones.
In significant contribution to the debate over Britain’s deterrent plans, an influential committee of MPs have cast doubt on the country’s ability to have a nuclear fleet of submarines due to uncertainty over the missile design.
“The Ministry of Defence’s (MoD) ability to maintain continuous at sea nuclear deterrence from 2024, when two of the current Vanguard class submarines will have gone out of service, is open to doubt,” said Edward Leigh, chairman of the public accounts committee, which released the report.
In a bizarre turn of events, MPs found that the decision on the size of the missile compartment in the new submarines had been taken before the actual missiles had been developed.
British officials are still waiting on American scientists to develop a missile to succeed the current Trident D5.
“Our programme to have a renewed nuclear deterrent will depend on yet to be taken decisions by the US on the dimensions of the successor missile,” Mr Leigh said.
“The MoD is taking steps to reduce the risk of a new missile not fitting in our submarines, but there is no guarantee it will.”
The new submarines are expected to be in service beyond the life of the existing missile and will need to be compatible with the new generation.
Britain has received assurances from the Americans that the new missile will be compatible with the new nuclear submarines, but the MoD has no direct control over the development.
Shadow defence secretary Dr Liam Fox mocked the government for its “woeful” stewardship.
“It is a typical example of the botched timescales and incompetent procurement which have become the hallmark of this Labour government,” he said.
“Current plans for the replacement nuclear deterrent are rife with uncertainty and risk.”
The future deterrent programme is still at the concept phase.
The MoD has yet to make many decisions about the principal parameters of the submarine design, the type of nuclear reactor, and the design and size of the missile compartment.
Earlier this week Gordon Brown appeared to hold open the option of a change to current policy, with a speech suggesting Britain would cut back on its nuclear renewal if America and Russia led by example.
