Temperature rising in Manchester Withington
Few would deny it is a tall order. An electoral upset that would turn the head of even the most-seasoned electoral pundit. But sitting in an office in Manchester’s town hall, Councillor John Leech – Liberal Democrat candidate for the Manchester Withington constituency – cautiously maintains that the 11,524 majority held by Labour MP Keith Bradley can be overturned.
The political arithmetic suggests otherwise. Even if all the opposition votes from the 2001 election were thrown together, Bradley – the local MP since 1987 – would still emerge victorious with 55 per cent of the vote. Surely this is one safe Labour seat beyond the wildest expectations of the most starry-eyed Lib Dem strategist.
But Leech is adamant, warning against drawing too strong a comparison with the previous election, which saw Bradley returned to serve a fourth consecutive term as MP in a constituency widely seen as thriving as it is diverse.
“This time before 2001 we had eight councillors in three wards,” the Lib Dem states. “This time round we have 16 out of 21, with councillors in six of the seven wards and we are challenging in the seventh ward of Old Moat as well.”
“We are neck-and-neck with Labour throughout the constituency, and in some areas we are massively ahead of them. I think people have finally woken up to Labour and seen that they might promise everything but they have not delivered anything.”
An assessment roundly rejected by Bradley himself. Back in his constituency office in the fashionable suburb of West Didsbury – ever bustling with its cafe bars and independent shops – the incumbent MP argues that the rise to prominence of the Liberal Democrats in Manchester Withington is directly related to “the demise” of the Conservative Party across the seat.
He insists: “Clearly we are never complacent about this constituency. However, we maintain that the Labour government has delivered good investment in public services and a very stable economy which has benefited hard-working families across south Manchester, and we will fight on our record.”
“The danger is that if people believe that voting Liberal Democrat will bring about a Liberal Democrat government, that is not the case. The consequence of such a tactic will be for Michael Howard to become the Government and a return to the appalling Tory years.”
For their part, the Conservatives are conspicuously late entrants to the Withington contest. Declining to name a candidate for the seat until just days before the election is called, they maintain that their choice – the confusingly-named Karen Bradley – will help to turn the tide in the provision of local health and education services. The Tories’ very own K.Bradley promises to represent the area with “passion”.
Councillor Leech is unimpressed: “When you have people like Michael Howard saying that they don’t have to win in places like Manchester and Liverpool to form a government, you know that the Tories accept that they have absolutely no chance in places like Manchester Withington.”
Predicting that the Conservative vote will “plummet” at the election, he adds: “I think the other minor parties’ vote is going to be pretty insignificant as well simply because people realise that it is a real fight between Labour and the Liberal Democrats.”
Step forward Brian Candeland, the Green Party’s candidate in a constituency generally regarded as one of the most eco-friendly of the large northern cities despite a recycling record over recent decades which the city council has spent much time and effort to improve.
Looking to better his party’s 4.4 per cent showing in the 2001 contest by clearing the five per cent hurdle which would see the Greens retain their deposit, Candeland expresses hope that the Lib Dem strategy of turning the contest into a two-horse race will not hold water with local constituents.
“If you look at a lot of the Labour and the Lib Dem policies, there isn’t a huge amount to choose between them,” he argues, insisting that Green Party policies are “fundamentally different” to those of its rivals. “For example, if you look at public services, which is going to be a really big subject at this election for everyone, we are totally against the use of PFI and the degree of private sector involvement that is going on in things like the health service and education.”
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The last Manchester seat to fall from Tory control back in 1987, the Withington constituency is widely feted for its mix of relative affluence and cosmopolitan views. The bohemian chic of such districts as Chorlton or the smart delights of upmarket Didsbury play host to a growing number of creative types, drawn to an area full to brimming with red-brick housing and newly thrown-up apartments.
Bradley is welcoming. “It is a vibrant local economy where people now actually want to live in the city of Manchester as opposed to 15 to 20 years where there was a big outpour of people because they didn’t find living in the city attractive or living in my constituency attractive.”
“It also makes it even more important that there is investment in the public services, particularly with schools, health and transport, to ensure that infrastructure remains sound for people wanting to remain living in south Manchester.”
John Leech remains concerned. He says that the direction of planning policy within south Manchester is not serving the best interests of the conurbation as a whole. 
“I am not anti-development but I am anti-overdevelopment, and I think there is a big difference. Certainly there are parts of Manchester which need lots of investment and lots of development, but because everyone wants to develop in south Manchester we have a situation where it is being crammed and other parts of Manchester which really do need the boost to the economy and the redevelopment of the area are missing out.”
Candeland thinks along similar lines. The Green Party candidate agrees that some areas represent attractive places to live, but bemoans what he describes as a reduction in the quality of life in certain parts.
“Withington village is now completely dead,” he states. “There are no local shops left. There are the takeaways and hairdressers and so on, but there is no kind of shopping centre – and I have seen West Didsbury and even Chorlton go the same way.”
“People are all getting in their cars, sitting in traffic jams and going off to some huge hypermarket like the Trafford Centre, but I don’t believe their quality of life has really improved.”
Regarding the relative fortunes of the constituency, Councillor Leech accepts that it is doing well overall but warns against viewing the area through rose-tinted glasses.
“There are still a lot of people in south Manchester that have not benefited from a Labour government”, he asserts. “There are some parts – as locally as the ward I represent – which are in the top one per cent of deprivation for the whole of the country.”
“Fair-minded” Lib Dem policies such as local income tax would help to redress such inequality, he argues. “That will take millions of the poorest people out of paying large council tax bills, especially pensioners”.
Bradley agrees that deprivation is a problem blighting some areas across Withington. Nonetheless, Labour policies have started to make a real impact on the ground, he maintains. 
He praises the New Deal: “That has meant that unemployment has plummeted in this constituency, down something like 64 per cent over the last eight years and with youth unemployment almost dow
