Fingers crossed as the EU referendum results come in

EU referendum result live as-it-happened

16:24 – Right, sorry for that delay. Here's one final piece on whether Britain could maybe change it's mind about last night's vote. Unlikely, but possible. The news has dried up a bit now. I suspect everyone is in bed. Tomorrow, the chaos starts again. Go and have a drink. It's been a long, strange night. 

12:58 – I've just updated the 'what happens now' piece. Still lots of uncertainty in there and there will be for some time to come. Here you go.

12:18 – So, to recap, here is the news this morning: Britain has voted to leave the European Union, France has overtaken the UK as the world’s fifth largest economy after the pound plunged to a 31-year low, the prime minister has resigned, the Scottish first minister has confirmed she is making a new bid for independence, the president of Sinn Féin is making a new bid for Irish reunification, Spain about to make a claim for dual sovereignty of Gibralter and a motion of no-confidence has been tabled against the leader of the Labour party.

12:16 – It seems Margaret Hodge tabled that vote of no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn. It was seconded by Ann Coffey.

12:03 – And now unconfirmed reports that a motion of no confidence has been tabled in Corbyn's leadership of the Labour party.

11:43 – Northern Ireland secretary Theresa Villiers is now saying Westminster can stop Scotland holding the referendum. That's almost certainly not legally true and it's certainly not legally true. Doing so would make the anger north of the border even worse.

11:42 – "We need to draw conclusions from this referendum. We must never forget in these hours too that the idea of European unification was the idea of peace after years of horrendous bloodshed. The founding fathers found a way to come together, manifested in the Treaty of Rome. We should not take this for granted. We are living in a world of turmoil. We are living in a time of crisis."

11:41 – OK, over to Angela Merkel. Events now moving at extraordinary speed. Merkel is saying the EU needs to show people how it imrpves their lives.

11:40 – (I should probably point out, now I've veered off into analysis, that this is Ian Dunt writing and no longer Adam Bienkov).

11:36 – What we are seeing here is quite probably the beginning of the end of the UK. But you can' fault Sturgeon's argument. Plainly the material conditions have changed. And Scotland voted In, only to have England drag it out. She also seems very serious and for good reason – she didn't want another referendum now. There is too much chaos. It's hard for her to know how it would go. This wasn't how she envisaged it happening. There is also the small matter of an independent Scotland getting into the EU. Spain may well veto it, out of fear that it would encourage it's own independence movements in the Basque country and Catalonia.

11:32 – "The need to act decisively needs to be tempered with the need to build consensus. Whatever happens as a result of this outcome, England, Scotland and Wales will alwaus be neighbours and best friends. Nothing will ever change that. I am proud of Scotland and how we voted yesterday. We proved we are a modern and inclusive country. We said we do not want to leave the EU. David Cameron and I have many political disagreements. But as I am learning every single day, leadership is not easy." She wishes the best for him and his family.

11:30 – She repeats that "significant material changes in circumstances" allow another referendum. That has plainly taken place. A referendum "is now on the table". When the Article 50 process process is triggered in three months time the UK will be on a two-year path" to leaving the EU. "We will begin to prepare the legislation that would be required to enable a new referendum to take place as and when parliament decides".

11:28 – The Cabinet will meet tomorrow to discuss this in more details, but she offers some more details. "We are determined that Scotland will continue now and in the future to be an attractive place to do business. I want to make ti absolutely clear today that I intend to take all possible steps and explore all options to do what the people of Scotland wanted". She wants Scotland in the EU and the "single market in particular". She wants Scotland involved in every step of negotiation and is in talks with Europran officials. 

11:24 – Events moving very fast now. In Brussels Jean Claude Juncker, president of the EU., is talking. But let's stick with Sturgeon. She says Scotland voted to reemain an "inclusive country". Here it comes. She says people hammered by the financial crisis used this referendum to make their voices heard. "As things stand, Scotland faces the prospect of being taken out the EU against our will. I regard that as democratically unacceptable."

11:20 – He makes a case for tolerance and liberal Britain. "We can now, calmly and united, take our country foward". The difference between that and Nigel Farage's claim that "decent people" had won is huge. It's clearly an appeal to those worried about the direction of the country, rather than those who voted Leave.

11:17 – Gove is ashen. He says Cameron will be thought of as a great prime minister. "The British people have given us a very clear instruction. People's vote to leave is the start of a process." Trading relationships will continue as before. Ministers and officials will meet to discuss the next steps over the next few days. "Our mission is clear: securing the best terms for Britain. Overall the change we will see will be a process of gradual divergence." he wants different political traditions involved in the process. "Britain is embarking on a new chapter, but one in line with our best traditions."

11:14 – Boris addresses those who voted Remain. This isn't isolation, he says. "We can't turn our backs on Europe. I want to reassure everybody that Britain will continue to be a great European power. There is simply no need in the 21st Century for a federal system of government based in Brussels. It's an idea that is no longer right for this country. It is the essence of our case that young people in this country can look forward to a more secure and more prosperous future. We now have a glorious opportunity." Boris says a British immigration policy will "take the wind out the sails of extremists and those who wpuld play politics with immigration".

11:12 – Johnson says the British public were given "one of the biggest and toughest questions of all". He goes on: "Some say that was wrong. I disagree. It was entirely right and inevitable. The electorate has searched in their hearts and answered as honestly as they can. They have decided that it is time to vote to take back control. It is vital to stress there is no need for haste."

11:11 – He celebrates Cameron's achievements, calling him "extraordinary" and saying "compassionate Conservatism" is his legacy. 

11:09 – OK, we're at the Vote Leave press conference. Gisela Stuart is speaking, flanked by a very serious looking Michael Gove and Boris Johnson. She gives a very underwhelming speech. Now Johnson takes over.

11:05 – The shadow Cabinet are currently in a meeting. Labour MPs appear to be openly revolting against Corbyn now. It's possible we will see a challenge against him by the end of the day. 

10:57 – We're also expecting a statement from Boris Johnson at the same time. Hang tight.

10:51 – We're expecting a press conference from Nicola Sturgeon any moment.

09.07 – David Cameron's full resignation statement

"The country has just taken part in a giant democratic exercise – perhaps the biggest in our history. Over 33 million people – from England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar – have all had their say.

We should be proud of the fact that in these islands we trust the people with these big decisions.

We not only have a parliamentary democracy, but on questions about the arrangements for how we are governed, there are times when it is right to ask the people themselves – and that is what we have done.

The British people have voted to leave the European Union and their will must be respected.

I want to thank everyone who took part in the campaign on my side of the argument, including all those who put aside party differences to speak in what they believed was the national interest.

And let me congratulate all those who took part in the leave campaign – for the spirited and passionate case that they made.

The will of the British people is an instruction that must be delivered. It was not a decision that was taken lightly, not least because so many things were said by so many different organisations about the significance of this decision.

So there can be no doubt about the result.

Across the world people have been watching the choice that Britain has made. I would reassure those markets and investors that Britain’s economy is fundamentally strong.

And I would also reassure Brits living in European countries and European citizens living here that there will be no immediate changes in your circumstances. There will be no initial change in the way our people can travel, in the way our goods can move or the way our services can be sold.

We must now prepare for a negotiation with the European Union. This will need to involve the full engagement of the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Ireland Governments, to ensure that the interests of all parts of our United Kingdom are protected and advanced.

But above all this will require strong, determined and committed leadership.

I am very proud and very honoured to have been Prime Minister of this country for six years.

I believe we have made great steps, with more people in work than ever before in our history; with reforms to welfare and education; increasing people’s life chances; building a bigger and stronger society; keeping our promises to the poorest people in the world, and enabling those who love each other to get married whatever their sexuality.

But above all restoring Britain’s economic strength, and I am grateful to everyone who has helped to make that happen.

I have also always believed that we have to confront big decisions – not duck them.

That’s why we delivered the first Coalition government in seventy years to bring our economy back from the brink. It’s why we delivered a fair, legal and decisive referendum in Scotland. And why I made the pledge to renegotiate Britain’s position in the European Union and hold a referendum on our membership, and have carried those things out.

I fought this campaign in the only way I know how – which is to say directly and passionately what I think and feel – head, heart and soul.

I held nothing back.

I was absolutely clear about my belief that Britain is stronger, safer and better off inside the European Union, and I made clear the referendum was about this and this alone – not the future of any single politician, including myself.

But the British people have made a very clear decision to take a different path, and as such I think the country requires fresh leadership to take it in this direction.

I will do everything I can as Prime Minister to steady the ship over the coming weeks and months, but I do not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers our country to its next destination.

This is not a decision I have taken lightly, but I do believe it is in the national interest to have a period of stability and then the new leadership required.

There is no need for a precise timetable today, but in my view we should aim to have a new Prime Minister in place by the start of the Conservative Party Conference in October.

Delivering stability will be important and I will continue in post as Prime Minister with my Cabinet for the next three months. The Cabinet will meet on Monday.

The Governor of the Bank of England is making a statement about the steps that the Bank and the Treasury are taking to reassure financial markets. We will also continue taking forward the important legislation that we set before Parliament in the Queen’s Speech. And I have spoken to Her Majesty the Queen this morning to advise her of the steps that I am taking.

A negotiation with the European Union will need to begin under a new Prime Minister, and I think it is right that this new Prime Minister takes the decision about when to trigger article 50 and start the formal and legal process of leaving the EU.

I will attend the European Council next week to explain the decision the British people have taken and my own decision.

The British people have made a choice. That not only needs to be respected – but those on the losing side of the argument, myself included, should help to make it work.

Britain is a special country.

We have so many great advantages.

A parliamentary democracy where we resolve great issues about our future through peaceful debate; a great trading nation, with our science and arts, our engineering and our creativity respected the world over.

And while we are not perfect, I do believe we can be a model of a multi-racial, multi-faith democracy, where people can come and make a contribution and rise to the very highest that their talent allows.

Although leaving Europe was not the path I recommended, I am the first to praise our incredible strengths. I have said before that Britain can survive outside the European Union and indeed that we could find a way.

Now the decision has been made to leave, we need to find the best way, and I will do everything I can to help.

I love this country – and I feel honoured to have served it.

And I will do everything I can in future to help this great country succeed."

08.58. How will those parts of the UK who voted to stay in the EU react to the result. New London mayor Sadiq Khan, who campaigned alongside the prime minister for Remain, has released the following statement, in whcih he calls for the UK to stay in the single market and for EU citizens to feel welcome. Neither call is likely to be successful.

"I believe that Britain is better off within the European Union, but the British people have clearly spoken today, and their democratic will must now be fulfilled.

"I would like to praise David Cameron for the dignified way he has reacted to the message sent by the British people in his words at Downing Street today. I agree with the Prime Minister that Britain can survive and prosper outside the European Union.

"I want to send a clear message to the British people and to businesses and investors around the world this morning – there is no need to panic.

"I still believe that our country is better off within the European Union, but there is no doubt that London will continue to be the successful city it is today. Our city and our country will continue to be the best place in the world to do business. And we will continue to look outwards and trade and engage with the entire world – including the European Union.

"Although we will be outside the EU, it is crucial that we remain part of the single market. Leaving the single market of 500 million people – with its free-trade benefits – would be a mistake. I will be pushing the Government to ensure this is the cornerstone of the negotiations with the EU. It is crucial that London has a voice at the table during those renegotiations, alongside Scotland and Northern Ireland.

"We all have a responsibility to now seek to heal the divisions that have emerged throughout this campaign – and to focus on that which unites us, rather than that which divides us.

"I want to send a particular message to the almost one million Europeans living in London, who make a huge contribution to our city – working hard, paying taxes and contributing to our civic and cultural life. You are welcome here. We value the enormous contribution you make to our city and that will not change as a result of this referendum.”

08.40 – So that's Britain out of the EU, Cameron out of Number 10 and everyone else out of the stock market…

08.20 – David Cameron outside Downing Street: "The British people have voted to leave the European Union and their will must be respected." The changes needed require "strong and determined leadership. I've been proud to be prime minister for six years…" here it comes.

"I fought this campaign in the only way I know how… I made it clear the referendum wa not about the future of any politician.

"The people have chosen to take a different path but the country needs fresh leadership."

"We should aim to have a new leader in palce by the start of the Conservative party conference in October"

Cameron says next prime minister will invoke Article 50.

08.17 – DAVID CAMERON IS ABOUT TO RESIGN according to unconfirmed reports on the BBC.

08.15 – The Stock Exhange has opened to big falls, following Brexit and the collapse of Sterling. Banks and housebuilders taking the biggest hit.

07.35 – Jeremy Corbyn is being interviewed on the BBC. He's called for David Cameron to invoke Article 50 in order to get Britain out of the EU as soon as possible. Asked whether he would like another general election, he replied that the prime minister should concentrate on dealing with result: "What he does [later] is up to him"

07.29 – Nigel Farage has just given his umpteenth speech of the morning. Again he repeated his claim that this was "a victory for the real people, a victory for the ordinary people, a victory for the decent people." 

The 48% of people who voted Remain aren't included in that it seems.

He also called for a "Brexit government". Was this a reference to reports that he has been offered a peerage by Boris in order to become part of a post-Brexit government?

07.00 – FINAL RESULT

LEAVE: 52% (17,410,742)

REMAIN: 48%  (16,141,241)

Read the full results here. 

6.45 – Britain is waking up to a very different world to the one they fell asleep to last night. The country has voted to leave the EU, the pound has collapsed and we now face the prospect of another independence referendum in Scotland. And yet despite all this, we still haven't heard a word from our prime minister. David Cameron is expected to make an appearance in the coming hours but it's anyone's guess exactly what he is going to say. The victorious side of the Conservative party have made it clear that they do not want to see him stand down immediately, but he may see things differently. We also don't know whether he plans to implement Article 50 in order to begin divorce proceedings as he previously suggested he would. The Tory Brexiteers have made it clear they do not want him to do that. Will he respect that wish given the result this morning? Whatever he decides, Cameron's days are clearly numbered. The only question is what those numbers are and whether we will find that out today. 

4.55 – Now we know we're definitely heading for Brexit we can look at what the consequences are. The first consequence will be economic. Sterling has already fallen to its lowest level in over 30 years with the biggest level of volatility since the financial crisis. What the impact of that volatility will be on the wider economy remains to be seen.

The second consequence will be on the future of the UK. The SNP have already declared that they will push for a second independence referendum. Until recently most assumed they would have little chance of winning that referendum. Brexit could make their chances of succeeding much higher.

The third consequence will be political. David Cameron will now almost certainly stand down, or at the very least announce his departure. This means that we could have a new prime minister and possibly another general election within a year. 

The fourth consequence is that Politics.co.uk will have a lot to write about over the next few years. 

4.42 – BBC, Sky and ITV are all now finally called it for Leave. In reality it's been clear for some hours.

4.00 – After declaring defeat at the start of the night, Nigel Farage has just declared victory. He said this was a victory for "ordinary" and "decent" people and presumably a defeat for abnormal and indecent people.

Lifting Boris Johnson's line from the last TV debates, he said that the 23rd June would hereby be known as "our Independence day"

3.10 – If things turn out the way they look now, then it's yet another terrible result for the predictive power of political pollsters, academics and journalists. Here's how they saw the race earlier this month in a report compiling the predictions of leading 'political experts'.

This follows similarly wrong predictions for the last two general elections, As I said earlier this month, when it comes to predicting political outcomes, you'd probably be better off flipping a coin than trusting in the professionals.

3.00 – Matt Singh, who famously correctly forecasted the result of the last general election, had been confidently forecasting a Remain victory in the EU referendum. It doesn't seem to be panning out that way. However, he doesn't think it's all over yet. He told my colleague Natalie Bloomer:

"Clearly Leave is doing well, particularly in the North East, which is a continuing trend from the general and local elections which saw Ukip doing well in those areas. It's too early to sepak about polls being wrong but turnout has been very high and what seems to have happened so far is that the people turning out are those who have perhaps  not voted since the 1980s and are disaffisfied with politics and wouldn't come to vote for a party but are happy to vote against what's not working for them. Seems as though so far, the high turnout helping Leave.

"Remain are now going to be relying on huge margins a good enough turnout in places like London. The fact it's as close as it is, shows it's going to be a while before we know for sure."

2.51 – If a vote for Brexit is a vote for anything, it's a vote against the freedom of movement of immigration. That's the uncomfortable reality for people such as myself who are strongly pro-immigration, but that's where we are. Whatever happens to the government after tonight, there will be huge public demand to cut down on net migration. This is a reality that even Labour are waking up to. The shadow chancellor John McDonnell told the BBC, his party are going to change their stance on migration.

"Clearly people think we haven't been listening enough. I think we have to look at free movement of labour," he told David Dimbleby.

2.43 – My colleague Natalie has been talking to Politics.co.uk contributor and leading Scottish political commentator David Torrance. He says Remain are underperforming across Scotland and suggests that contrary to some suggestions, Brexit could pose political difficulties for Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP.

"The Scottish split is closer than expected at around 60/40. There's huge ramifications if Scotland Remain and England Leave but at the same time Sturgeon is in a really difficult position because she doesn't want to hold another independence referendum until support is much higher and Brexit doesn't really help in that respect."

2.40 – Pound continuing to fall

2.30 – The first good result has come in for Remain in Lambeth in London where they got 79% Remain. There's also been a very good result in Wandsworth, about 10% better than expected. If Remain were to pull off a surprise comeback, then winnning big in high popiulation areas is how they would do it. Unfortunately it's not looking so good in Outer London, where Leave has won in Barking and Dagenham at a level way beyond what was expected. You can check out all the results as they come in over here.

2.10 – Leave is now favourite on Betfair. 

I hate to say it, but my instincts that Britain was heading towards Brexit, look to be realised. It's still fairly early and things could change utterly, but it's not looking very likely so far.

1.51 – If it is Brexit then the performance of Britain's pollster is likely to be very low down on the country's list of priorities. However, it is worth looking at. One of the pollsters to forecast a healthy win for Remain were Comres who gave Remain an eight point lead.

That now looks like a very unlikely outcome. My colleague Natalie has spoken to Comres director of polling Tom Mludzinski about the results so far. He told her: 

"Leave appear to be outperforming expectations in early areas but it's still very early. Turnout seems lower in London and Scotland than expectations around the country but still early days."

He's right to be cautious. The results in the North East could still be balanced out elsewhere. However, it hasn't happened yet.

1.37 – I picked up signs that things were going bad for Remain in Labour areas of the North East earlier this week. One shadow cabinet source told me they were "pessimistic" about their chances and had found "huge anger" towards Labour on the doorsteps there. That certainly seems to be borne out in the results we've seen so far.

One Labour source tells me: "This is what happens when you put a North London middle class liberal in charge of persuading millions of working class northern voters. They just stop listening."

1.30 – Ok so things aren't looking great, but it's not all bad news.

1.00 – Looks like turnout in London is lower than required to counteract the better than expected results for Leave in the rest of the country. Could the bad weather have played a part? Early signs are that the same is happening in Scotland where turnout is lower than in Leave-leaning areas.

00.45 – All the signs are that Leave are doing much better in England, particularly in the North East than expected. In order for Remain to still win, they need to do much better than expected in London and other pro-Remain areas. Could it happen? There are some tentative signs in that direction.

00.31 – Pound has fallen 6% in a matter of minutes. The biggest fall we've seen since the financial crisis. This is not good.

00.18 – More grim news for Remain.

This isn't looking good for Remain to put it incredibly lightly. These results will not just have set off warning lights in Remain HQ, tehy will have set off sirens, sprinklers and full evacuation.

00.04 – The first England result is very bad news for Remain.

Newcastle upon Tyne gets a Remain victory by 50.7% which is significantly less than could be expected if the polls we've seen were right. Very early days but this is encouraging for Leave.

23.58 – We haven't had a single meaningful resiult in and yet the recriminations are already starting. Ukip's only MP Douglas Carswell has been on the BBC attacking his party leader's management of the campaign. Speaking about Farage's controversial immigration posters, he said:

"I think it was a fundamentally the wrong thing to do … morally. It gave ammunition to the other side to attack us…. Angry nativism doesn't win elections in this country."

23.35 – Gibraltar is the first result to come in. It's recorded an 84% turnout, which is very high. This was expected to be the best result for Remain.

Remain: 19322 (96%)

Leave: 823

A huge Remain victory unsurprisingly.

23.10 – Northern Ireland secretary and prominent Leave campaigner Theresa Villiers has also all but conceded defeat, telling Sky News: "I have to say my instinct is that Remain has won… I would put it down to project fear succeeding"

23.00 – Farage has a history of blaming defeats on dirty tricks. We saw it in the Oldham by-election when he claimed the result was "bent" and threatened a criminal case, only to later withdraw it. Tonight we're seeing something similar as he seeks to blame the extension of the voting registration drive for what he believes will be tonight's defeat. He told the Huffington Post:

“I think the Remain side edged it – that’s my view.”

He added: “My view has been the sizeable number of registrations which took place in the 48 hour extension has played a part.

“They got a huge number of young people. That’s going to make a difference.

“The whole Government campaign has been about registering young people and that’s made a big, big difference.”

And he would have gotten away with it too, if it weren't for those meddling kids…

22.45 – Another not-an-exit poll, this time from Ipsos Mori. Like YouGov they've found an on the day swing to Remain and are now forecasting an 8 point lead for the status quo.

22.40 – Nigel Farage appears to have conceded defeat, telling Sky News that it "looks like Remain will edge it".

"It’s been an extraordinary referendum campaign, turnout looks to be exceptionally high and looks like Remain will edge it. Ukip and I are going nowhere and the party will only continue to grow stronger in the future,"

It's unclear whether this judgement is just based on the polls or whether it is what his own campaign are telling him.

22.20 – So how seriously should we take YouGov's poll? Not very seriously is the answer, sadly These sorts of polls were pretty useless at the general election. Unlke a propers exit poll where random selections of voters say how they vote, these 'recontact' polls merely go back to the pollster's previous online samples of voters and re-ask the question. The problem at the general election was that those samples were completely wrong. There's still a very good chance they're wrong tonight as well.

22.00 – Good evening and welcome to our live blog. I'll be here for the duration alongside my colleague Natalie Bloomer as all the results come in for the EU referendum. Depending on how close it is, we may not know the final outcome until 7.00 tomorrow morning, but in all likelihood we'll have a pretty firm idea of which way it has gone much sooner than that. Unlike the general election, there's no exit poll. However YouGov have conducted an eve-of-poll poll. Basically, this involves asking people they've surveyed before to see how they actually voted. That's just been released and it's found a four point lead for Remain, an increase of two points on their poll last night.

This is both good and bad news for Remain supporters – good in that Remain are still ahead, but bad in that it doesn't show a major swing to the status quo as expected. If it is largely accurate (and that's a big if) then it means the result could still be very close and we can expect a long night ahead.