End-of-term report: Britain is limping through 2012
The coalition is leaking political capital. British society continues to fragment. This year, it's fair to say, has got off to a faltering start.
Starting 2012 was always going to be a tough ask for the coalition. It's been nearly two years since the general election, so we're very much into that flat mid-period of the parliament. The coalition has already used up nearly 40% of its time in power. As the first three months of 2012 have shown, it is using up its political capital with abandon, too.
The government's reform agenda has run into two patches of very troubled water in parliament. The fight against Iain Duncan Smith's welfare reform agenda saw the Tories and Lib Dems alienate millions of those on benefits. At the same time the fight against the health and social care bill reached its climax, with extraordinary levels of opposition from NHS workers to the changes.
On both fronts David Cameron has adopted a bullish approach. Taking a leaf from Tony Blair's book, he had pledged to stand firm in the face of feet-draggers. The government always gets its way.
In the short-term the coalition has. Both changes are becoming law, giving the government time to make its changes become irreversible reality by 2015. That's the plan, at least. For now, the negative attritional impact of these measures is clear. A very bitter taste has been left in the mouth of many voters in Britain.
Overshadowing these troubles of its own making lies the dark grey cloud of the economy. Its all-pervasive negative impact on the popularity of the government is undeniable. The cuts continue to bite. Unemployment continues to rise.
Britain has probably managed to avoid a double-dip recession, but the political narrative remains one of stagnant failure. George Osborne's Budget, in addition to being very politically damaging for the wealth-oriented Conservatives, does not appear to have done much to improve prospects for growth. This is an unhappy period for the country, containing more failure than it does success. Not a happy time to be in power.
It does not follow, though, that this is a happy time to be in opposition, either. Ed Miliband's trials and tribulations have continued in the first quarter of 2012. His personal standing took another battering at the start of the year amid repeated attacks over Labour's links with the unions. But then came a surprise recovery: piggybacking off the NHS reforms, he championed the cause of its enemies week after week in prime minister's questions. There are now signs the leader of the opposition is beginning to find his voice. Labour might have struggled with issues like the benefit cap, but Miliband is slowly, agonisingly growing in confidence.
Surprise stories like the cash-for-access scandal have underlined the common perils politicians in either government or opposition face this spring. Public hostility towards politicians, not yet soothed since the expenses scandal, remains intense. Their frustrations extend beyond politics to Britain's other troubled power bases. As the row over Stephen Hester's £1 million bonus showed, the bankers remain as hated as ever. So too do police and the journalists, thanks to the drip-drip exposure provided by the Leveson inquiry. In all these areas the UK voter has had reason to turn his or her nose up at those at the top of society.
Another group being viewed dimly are the Scots; specifically, the Scottish nationalists plotting from Holyrood their independence referendum. English indifference towards Scotland could prove an unexpected extra factor influencing the vote, when it eventually comes. In the meantime, the opening skirmishes over process issues have shown a bitter vindictiveness between the two governments reflecting their contempt for each other. Not a happy addition, then to the catalogue of suspicion seen over the country's real troubles.
Britain, bruised and battered by economic malaise and a crisis of confidence in its leaders, is limping forward in 2012. Not much is likely to change before MPs depart for their long summer recess; but an injection of impetus to the coalition's agenda via the Queen's Speech, and the amusement value on offer from the London mayoral election, mean we've got plenty to look forward to before the Olympics finally arrives.
