Analysis: Hungry Labour prepared to gamble in hung town halls
Many councils in ‘no overall control’ are turning out to be Labour-run administrations – in what could turn out to be a gamble for Ed Miliband’s party.
Part of the reason that the surprising result of last year’s general election didn’t raise many activists’ eyebrows was that grassroots politicos are perfectly accustomed to coalitions. Of the local authorities which were contested in 2011, 55 ended up with no party having an overall majority. As the initial impact of the results settled in, we weren’t able to assess who would finally end up in charge.
It’s taken a while, but we can now. Unlike in parliament, where a government stands or falls by ‘confidence motions’ and votes on the Budget, council administrations are much more vulnerable. “Numbers usually mean everything,” Andy Sawford of the Local Government Information Unit thinktank explains. Those making these calculations have to take into account whether or not they can pass a budget, major decisions, etc, etc. Talks with smaller groups – independents, Green party councillors, etc – make a big difference.
“Some deliberately delay their full council meetings, when they decide who the leader of the council is – that way you can see who is running the council,” Mr Sawford adds. “A lot of them delay that so they have time to sort these things out.”
The council leader is the figure with the real power; whether they’ve decided to go into a coalition, or simply persuaded enough to abstain or back them on this one occasion, it’s from this that it’s possible to assess where the real power lies.
In 2011, the bulk of these councils are ending up in Labour’s hands.
Wirral, High Peak, and Reading are among the recent councils to fall under Labour’s influence. In the latter, for example, this really matters: Reading has one, or possibly even two, marginal parliamentary seats up for grabs come 2015. The Conservatives and Lib Dems took the council two years ago, but Labour have now taken it back after the Green party sat on their hands.
“You’re seeing a pattern that reflects the broad pattern of the election results,” Mr Sawford continued. What is interesting, he says, is that Labour are displaying a hunger for power which overrides the awkward political climate. It would be easy for them to stay on the outside while Tory-Lib Dem administrations make tough spending decisions. But, as Sawford says, this doesn’t seem to be deterring them.
“There’s that appetite for power at the local level – Labour are taking a gamble, in a sense,” he explains.
Some councils, of course, buck the trend. In places like Poole, no overall control has not resulted in any real change. Teignbridge has gone from no overall control to a Conservative administration. South Somerset has switched from Lib Dem to the Tories, but Winchester saw the Conservatives lose ground. A narrow Lib Dem administration has been set up in its place.
“You’re seeing a pattern that reflects the broad pattern of the election results. The Liberal Democrats have lost ground, which has effectively allowed Labour back in in many places,” Sawford explains.
“Liberal Democrat-Conservative partnerships around the country have not got the numbers, and Labour are now in the driving seat. It’s because of Lib Dem losses that Labour are in control.”
One huge anomaly is Birmingham, where the Tories lost their overall majority. Labour is now the largest party, but remains out of power because of the solidity of a local coalition between the Conservatives and the Lib Dems which predates the national tie-up between the two parties by years.
This, though, is the exception that proves the rule. The broad trend is that it’s Labour which is cleaning up in those councils whose voters couldn’t quite make up their collective minds about who should be in charge.
It’s a noteworthy shift. But let’s not get carried away. Even if all the local authorities contested this year formed minority Labour administrations, Ed Miliband’s party would still barely have two-thirds of the number held successfully by David Cameron’s Conservatives. If Miliband wants to regain the heights of New Labour’s success in local government during the early years of Tony Blair, his party have a lot more work to do.
