Local elections 2011: Five key battlegrounds
politics.co.uk assesses the results from five key council chambers as the results come in.
Local elections are famous for their individuality. This city has a “very nasty habit of going against the trend”. That town “ignores the national picture”. Local political history is nearly always far more important than what’s going on in Westminster. And then there’s the added complications of different ways of doing things – minority administrations here, coalitions there. England offers a hotch-potch patchwork of compromises and power-broking deals.
Despite everything, some of the closest single-tier councils of all offer an interesting snapshot of the agonising decisions in Westminster which could follow today’s voting.
We picked out five councils where the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, clinging on narrowly, were facing intense pressure – both from the rejuvenated Labour party and from each other.
Sheffield
Nick Clegg is the MP for Sheffield Hallam, which is why it was especially painful when the Lib Dems ended their reign as the city’s largest party. The council had been in no overall control, with the Lib Dems on 41 seats and Labour just one seat behind. Over the last year Labour and the two Green councillors had kept the Lib Dems in power, although Labour abstained on the budget vote. “It’s been a strange few months, really,” one insider admitted. In today’s elections the Lib Dems were on the defensive. Only a third of the council was up for election and Labour was looking for gains in more seats.
Last year, Labour advanced their total by three or four. Could they do the same this year? Yes, and then some. Despite initial Lib Dem fears that they could lose as many as 12 seats, they eventually lost nine, holding just six councillors. Labour now have 49 seats out of 85, meaning they have overall control.
It’s the extent of the victory which is so remarkable. But locals point to the context: the enormous row about Sheffield Forgemasters and Lib Dem business secretary Vince Cable’s refusal to assist the struggling firm. Labour campaigners have focused almost exclusively on the national picture. This felt like a city about to change hands, but the Lib Dems’ fall from grace was more spectacular than we had expected.
Birmingham
Labour’s leader on Birmingham city council had confidently predicted his party will emerge as the largest party after this year’s elections. In the end he was proved right. Labour took 14 seats of the council’s 120. But Birmingham appeared to have bucked the national trend of the Lib Dems performing worse than the Tories, for here Labour’s gains came from the Tories lost six and the Lib Dems lost seven.
This is one case study which shows the importance of local context. Labour were in government through the 1990s when, the current administration claims, they went on a spending spree which left the city close to broke. In 2004 the current coalition formed. This year’s elections were unlikely to shift their close alliance seven years on – but could prove a crucial stepping stone for a return to power for Labour in 2012.
“It’s apparent that this is the national government [which is responsible for Labour gains],” one Tory councillor said.
“The coalition government is having to make some very tough decisions which this country needs to be made in its national interest. Quite obviously we are bearing the brunt of that.”
Derby
As in Westminster, indecisive elections tend to produce rather awkward council coalitions. In Derby, the Conservatives had led a minority administration for the last year. With Labour on 17 seats and the Lib Dems not far behind on 15, either party could have propped them up when it came to crucial decisions like the government. In the end the Lib Dems agreed to reach an informal agreement, an arms-length approach approximating to the ‘confidence and supply’ option rejected by Clegg at the national level. Part of the deal is that the Lib Dems will get the mayoralty for the first time next year; there are other elements too, of course. These are the kind of political dealings which so alienate voters – but are so necessary.
Labour was hoping its decision to step away from power in the last 12 months will reap benefits. It succeeded in getting up to its target of 22 seats, making it the largest party on the council, as campaigners succeeded in tying the local message of Tory cuts backed by the Lib Dems with the national one. Anyone who forecasts a Derby result is worth their weight in gold, locals said. But it looked like the Labour optimists had got this one about right.
The question now is what happens next. The Tories have 16 seats and the Lib Dems have 12, having lost four. Will the Lib Dems consider supporting Labour? And, crucially, will Labour be interested in anything other than going it alone?
Poole
Poole had looked on paper like one of the few single-tier councils where the Lib Dems could conceivably seize power from the Conservatives. The local Lib Dems were only seven seats behind, 16 seats to 23, after the last election. Surely this was a council where Clegg’s party could get an unexpected boost?
Alas, no. The balance had shifted in the interim to 25 Tories and 17 Lib Dems. The emergence of a local right-leaning group, Poole People, complicated the picture. And then there was the small Labour vote. Usually soft Labour voters here have backed the Lib Dems, but not this time. Local Lib Dems believe this has something to do with the national picture, funnily enough.
The Lib Dems concentrated on holding their current seats, rather than making any gains at all. They targeted two wards, totalling five seats, giving themselves at least a chance of achieving the 22-seat victory goal.
Given the national picture of misery for the Lib Dems, the results on the night were relatively positive.
The Lib Dems held on their seats and made one gain, taking their overall count to 18. Not quite enough to get over the line. But Poole People succeeded in taking three seats from the Tories, reducing the Conservatives down below the 22 mark to 21 seats. The council slipped to no overall control.
Bedford
This was one of four towns with elections for a directly elected mayor taking place. These trump the council elections in terms of their importance, for it’s the mayor who appoints the Cabinet – a bit like the US presidency. The Lib Dems’ Dave Hodgson is the incumbent, but the local Conservatives were confident they could oust him this time round. No more schisms for them – they blame their failure last time round on internal divisions.
It’s hard to predict the winner, with both sides admitting the race will be tight. Usually local elections are a mixture of national issues and local ones. But with the mayor, you have to take into account the personal standing of the incumbent too.
The numbers on the council do matter, even so. Mayoral decisions have to be approved by an overall majority. If they’re defeated, the mayor must ‘think again’ before submitting his proposals, revised or not, to the council once more. This time he needs the backing of just a third of the vote – or 14 councillors. The last council was made up of 13 Lib Dems, nine Tories and six Labour.
The Tories don’t seem especially confident of making much progress – instead it could be Labour who performs best. We have a little longer to wait and find out whether the national opposition party’s arguments stand up in Bedford, for counting only began on Friday morning.
