State of play: Welsh elections

Two coalitions cast their shadow over the Welsh elections – pushing Labour out in front.
By Hannah Brenton
The Welsh Assembly elections will be influenced by not one, but two coalitions.
The shadow of the coalition in Westminster rests heavily upon the four main parties, encouraging them to set out policies on the economy alongside ways to combat some of London’s most unpopular spending cuts, ring-fence the NHS and maintain free tuition fees for university students.
But there is another coalition likely to weigh upon voters’ minds. Labour and the nationalist Plaid Cymru have been in coalition in the Welsh Senedd for four years and as the election campaign rages, the voters look set to punish Plaid for any deficiencies.
Welsh unemployment remains the highest in the UK and the country’s school children are beginning to fall behind their English counterparts in test results. The resounding success of the Welsh referendum in March was partly through frustration with the limitations on the Senedd’s powers, devolving further powers on education and health.
Nevertheless Plaid’s share of the vote is down in the latest polls by around five percent in the constituency vote and three percent in the regional vote compared with their 2007 result. Their fall from grace is reflected in the hit currently being felt in the Welsh Lib Dem flanks, facing an almost seven percent dip in the constituency vote and a three percent drop at the regional level. Both junior coalition partners look set to take a beating.
In contrast, Labour seem to have the best of both worlds in the Welsh elections – bolstered by long-term grassroots support in Wales and the benefits of incumbency as the largest party in the current assembly, while simultaneously being able to argue they offer a refreshing alternative to the coalition in Westminster.
In this dual capability, they are steaming ahead in the polls. The latest YouGov numbers had them just below the 50% mark, which could deliver them the 31 seats needed for a majority – something Wales has yet to experience since the first devolved elections in 1999.
Tory leader Nick Bourne has been campaigning strongly against Labour, arguing 12 years in government in Wales is enough. Although the Tory vote is holding up better than the Lib Dems, voters do not seem to be defecting from Labour.
Unsurprisingly all the parties are now focussing on the economy. Labour have proposed a Welsh Jobs Fund, Plaid want to create a non-profit Build for Wales company to erect more schools and hospitals, the Lib Dems are promoting training for businesses and the unemployed while the Conservatives want to slash business rates.
The BNP have grabbed headlines, after one of their assembly candidates burnt a Qur’an in his backgarden. And the Lib Dems, Labour and Plaid have all fallen victim to the imaginatively named ‘typo-gate’, where serious errors have appeared in their manifestos, particularly the Lib Dem Welsh language version which misspelt the words for environment, sports and politics.
As Labour pulls ahead, Ed Miliband was out campaigning yesterday with the Welsh party leader Carwyn Jones. He said the Welsh elections will show that Labour “can offer an alternative” to the coalition’s austerity agenda.
This is an election where the question is not who will win, but by how much. The margin will determine whether Labour have to seek coalition partners once more.
If Labour does reach a clear majority it will send a frightening message to the coalition in Westminster and provide a solid platform for further attacks.