Mid Dorset and North Poole: On a knife edge
Just 384 votes separated the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives in 2001. And this time around the demographics of Mid Dorset and North Poole have thrown a spotlight on two areas symbolising the differences between the two parties – university fees and the local tax system.
Former Poole mayor Annette Brooke won the seat for the Liberal Democrats in 2001. Just four years earlier in 1997 the Conservatives held all eight Dorset seats. The loss of Mid Dorset to the Lib Dems, and neighbouring Dorset South to Labour, were symbols of their declining fortunes. But with internal putsches over and with improved national credibility the Tories are determined to seize the seat back.
That is not to say that the other parties are unimportant in the constituency. Labour and UKIP have put up candidates and with the contest between the Conservatives and the Lib Dems so close their success could have a crucial impact in deciding the outcome. Although Dorset singer Billy Bragg has launched a campaign to encourage tactical voting in the region – against the Conservatives – both the UKIP and Labour candidates plan to fight the election on their own programmes.
Brooke is basing her bid for re-election on her record as a constituency MP. She says that her “first pledge when I was elected was that I wanted to be a really good constituency MP and I think I have achieved that. I do work seven days a week and there is still not enough hours in the day.”
Brooke was a Lib Dem parliamentary spokesperson on children, and is “amused” at the pledges coming from the Conservatives on childcare and maternity allowances, citing their “appalling” record on early years whilst in government, and adding that there are no “signs where they are getting the money from” this time around.
She believes the Lib Dems’ pledge to scrap the Child Trust Fund and use the money to fund smaller class sizes of 20 at key stage one is key, saying: “Why do people buy private education at that age? It is because of small classes, and that should be available to everybody.”
Conservative opponent, Simon Hayes, is a former leader of New Forest council and currently chair of the local police authority. Quietly confident, Hayes says: “I think what people are looking for is a shift nationally in national polices in the way that the country is going. So it is no longer possible for people to campaign just on how you help people with planning applications and hedges and all that kind of stuff.
“I think people are looking for a more substantial Member of Parliament, quite frankly, than we have got at the moment.”
With his police authority background, it is no surprise that one of Hayes’ top campaigning areas is crime. In particular, the impact of crime and anti-social behaviour in rural areas which he suggests is a ‘wave’ effect coming through from the towns.
Hayes says: “Vandalism and anti social behaviour started in the urban side and then washed through. Coming after that is now more violent crime and the fear of burglaries and car thefts and stuff which is spreading from Poole direction crudely west.”
This, he says, is a problem for much of the South West with evidence of “criminals coming from other parts of the country, down the motorway system, burgling houses and going back again to their conurbations.”
Hayes says “the message is that policing in rural areas is not as tight as it should be and I don’t think that is right.” Rather than an expansion of community support officers, he adds, “I would have preferred this Labour government to have given money to police authorities to recruit warrant holding police officers.”
But it is in the details of the parties local finance and student finance policies that main differences between the two candidates can be seen.
Brooke says top-up fees are set to be a “big issue” in the election as there is a high proportion of people wanting to go to university within the constituency.
“Whilst the Conservatives are saying they are opposing top up fees, actually raising the money for universities through charging commercial rates on student loans, I don’t think that will be too attractive when people realise exactly what is on offer.”
Hayes though says that the Conservative plans of a loan for the cost of living would cost students “considerably less than it would under the Labour proposals” and says the Lib Dems policy has “no substance or credibility to it”.
“With the Liberal Democrats saying that higher education is going to be free, it’s not going to be free, someone is going to have to pay for it, and in order to pay for it they are going to have to put up taxes. They have been quite clear on that. and I don’t think that is right.”
But, Brooke is a strong defender of her party’s taxation policies. Stressing that the rises in council tax have been a huge local issue, Brooke says of the local income tax: “Yes it will affect people but if you believe in social justice, the only way that you can change the council tax system without raising another tax is to actually have winners and losers, and obviously the losers will be the most affluent”.
“Remember that we do have a lot of pensioners and under the proposals 80 per cent of pensioners would actually gain so that is massive, and yes people like myself will pay more. And I think I should quite honestly because the burden is disproportionately on those with low incomes.”
She urges people to look at the whole package of Lib Dem policies, saying: “Those same people who might be paying a little bit more in local income tax as opposed to council tax, we are getting rid of student fees so that is a plus. We are also advocating funding free personal care, and people would have a better pension regardless of income.”
Brooke dismisses the Conservative plans for a rebate on council tax, accusing the Tories of “sticking with it in a sort of auction with Labour on who is going to have the most attractive offer next year. I think it is a load of nonsense. It is a tax past its sell by date and it has got to be scrapped, its got to be replaced”.
Hayes though says that the plan for a local income tax has “no depth to it in terms of policy”.
“I think we are seeing the first signs that local income tax, now it is under the spotlight of the election is beginning to shrivel.”
The feedback he has received when canvassing shows that people understand the Conservative policy of a rebate, and reducing the expenditure of local councils, he says. Citing his experience as a district councillor and the “bureaucracy” councils are required to send to central government, Hayes says that doing away with things like Best Value mean that “the demands that councils make on council tax payers will shrink and reduce and we pledged the £500 to pensioners over 65 as an indication that we mean business in that regard.”
He adds that people are now “beginning to think now on what basis is the [local income] tax going to be gathered. People are telling us as we canvas, retired people, that they have registered that the local income tax is going to be more expensive for younger, married couples, and that there is pressure anyway financially on younger married couples.”
One thing Brooke and Hayes agree on is that it is a two horse race for the parliamentary seat – and this has raised the spectre of both tactical voting and the influence of smaller parties.
Hayes is relaxed about any threat posed by UKIP saying that although the UKIP candidate polled more votes in 2001 than the Conservatives lost by “one needs to look and say, would those votes have come to us? I don’t think you can say that they would have done.”
He also believes that the UKIP vote i
