SARS – deadlier than first predicted
The first detailed study into the spread of the deadly SARS virus in Hong Kong reports that the disease so far has killed one in five sufferers.
World Health Organisation statistics had initially put the death rate at around five per cent. However, if the research, published on the website of The Lancet, is correct, the pneumonia-like disease kills four times that many at 20 per cent.
A sample of 1,425 cases was examined for the study, which also found that older people are far more likely to die from the virus. The death rate for patients of 60 or over was more than 40 per cent, while only 13 per cent of those under 60 were killed by Sars.
It is unclear whether the death rate has risen as a result of the virus mutating or because the WHO underestimated its impact.
Symptoms tend to emerge around six days after infection, the researchers revealed. However, the patients in the Hong Kong sample typically sought treatment between three and five days after symptoms developed.
The delay in seeking treatment helps to explain the rapid spread of the disease.
Professor Roy Anderson of Imperial College London, and one of the authors of the study, advised: ‘Governments need to make sure that patients are encouraged to rapidly report symptoms and admit themselves to hospital to arrange for quarantine and testing to see whether they have the Sars virus.’
The research also found that measures introduced to control the spread of Sars were proving effective and scientists warned countries not to ease back on restrictions until the disease is completely under control.
Meanwhile, Singapore, which has the world’s third-highest SARS death toll, says it needs another 10 days without further deaths before the disease is officially under control.
The United States has already removed Singapore from its list of SARS-affected areas to avoid. However, the Singaporean government is waiting two incubation periods to ensure no new cases emerge before declaring the epidemic under control.
The last reported infection of the virus was on April 27th. Twenty-seven people have died from SARS and 204 have been infected in the territory.
