Brown offers more of the same for voters eager for change
More than half of voters hope the next general election will bring a change of government, the latest Guardian/ICM opinion poll suggests.
Some 54 per cent of voters polled said they were hoping for change in the next term, with just 21 per cent wanting Labour to remain in government.
Worryingly for Gordon Brown, who now seems certain to succeed Tony Blair as prime minister, just 22 per cent of voters think he would represent a change while 71 per cent think Mr Brown would offer more of the same, including 53 per cent of Labour voters.
Nearly four in five voters think there should be a contest for the Labour leadership. However, they are likely to be disappointed; the environment minister David Miliband, widely tipped as the most credible challenger for the chancellor, insisted he has never considered running.
The Conservative leader David Cameron remains the most popular contender as prime minister, even though voters do not appear to think he would always do a good job. The chancellor is still seen as the man most likely to make the right decision during difficult times, leading by one point with 40 per cent.
However, Mr Cameron has narrowed the competence gap; when the same question was asked in September, Mr Brown led by 32 per cent to Mr Cameron’s 25 per cent. Moreover, Mr Cameron now has an 11 point lead as the man most likely to take Britain in the right direction and a six point lead to Mr Brown’s 37 per cent as the man with the most potential as prime minister.
Despite Mr Cameron’s rising personal popularity, the Conservatives have dropped four points as voters abandon the traditional parties of government for small parties, including the SNP. Conservative support is down to 37 per cent while Labour have also dropped one point to 30 per cent.
Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats have climbed three points to 21 per cent and smaller parties have risen to 12 per cent, including two per cent each for the Greens and Ukip.
Although the seven point Tory lead is their narrowest of the year, it could still give them enough votes to become the largest party in the Commons, although they would struggle to hold a majority.
It has now been more than a year since Labour led in an ICM/Guardian poll, while their faltering popularity has been confirmed by successive surveys.
