Treading the tightrope
By Ian Dunt
Foreign secretary David Miliband leaves Pakistan today after several days in the Indian subcontinent. It’s a painfully delicate way to spend your week, with relations between the two nuclear states still tense and angry following the Mumbai attacks. Miliband rarely deviates from a traditional line on anything, and his trip saw him following the tried and tested route of Western leaders. The main priority is in keeping Pakistan on-side in the conflict we used to call the ‘war on terror’ while appearing to sympathise with India’s anger.
India’s anger is currently something to behold. At least 173 people were killed and 308 injured in the attacks on Mumbai in November last year. Everyone blames a group originating in Pakistan. But most people in India – and several outside – blame Pakistani state agencies. The Indian prime minister himself, Manmohan Singh, said as much – arguing the attacks were so sophisticated it was entirely plausible to assume a state agency had been involved.
Denial
So it made for an interesting day when Miliband chose to explicitly deny that that could be true. “I have said publicly that I do not believe the attacks were directed by the Pakistani state and I think it’s important to restate that,” Miliband told a news conference on Tuesday. This was the moment his balancing act came closest to tipping over.
“Miliband is keen the Pakistanis don’t see his visit as siding with India – he’s been careful to say these attacks were perpetrated not by any part of the state or establishment but by non-state actors,” says Dr Farzana Shaikh, associated fellow at the Asia programme at Chatham House.
“In doing that he’s following broadly what western governments are trying to do, which is to prevail on India to be restrained in its action against Pakistan, but to make clear to Pakistan that it must rein in the militants that committed atrocities in Mumbai. He’s trying to negotiate a very delicate situation – trying to keep Pakistan onside as an ally in the ‘war on terror’, while making sure Britain’s relations with India, which have always been extremely cordial, are not compromised.”
That partly explains his decision to publicly refute the prime minister’s beliefs. Anglo-Indian relations are strong while the relationship with Pakistan is the worst of all combinations: volatile and pivotal.
Problems with Pakistan
“The relationship between the west and Pakistan continues to get more and more problematic,” says Dr Natasha Ezlow, a lecturer and expert on Pakistan at the government department of the University of Essex. “The relationship with India has problems, but it’s nowhere near as complex as that between Pakistan and the west.”
Mr Miliband’s line may be sensible, but it isn’t necessarily just. It isn’t hard to find experts on Pakistan who remain convinced a part of the state apparatus or the military had something to do with the Mumbai attacks.
“They don’t have any control over their internal security,” says Dr Ezlow. “The state itself is very, very weak. The military is in complete control. It is very likely they were involved in planning something like this. It fits the pattern of how they behave.”
Pakistan has already warned that if relations with India continue to deteriorate it would consider sending more troops to the border – a threat Nato is taking very seriously. All of it carries worrying echoes of the turn of the century, when a huge build-up of troops on the border scared the world into fully appreciating the delicate nature of the two nuclear states’ relationship.
Western hypocrisy
Yet the blatant double-standards of the west – which freely conducts military operations in Pakistan, sometime at great human cost, but refuses to countenance a similar Indian reaction – is being felt acutely by the Indian public. “There’s a great deal of frustration and the Indian government is certainly aware of this, particularly with general elections coming up in May,” Dr Shaikh says.
“But at the same time sections of Indian public opinion are conscious of India’s aspirations of being accepted as responsible member of the international community. And unlike Israel – which can count on international support – India isn’t in a position to show two fingers to the world. There is great public frustration, but at this point there are many that also feel it is in India’s interest to be seen as a major player.”
It’s not the first time Miliband, who is never the most exciting of politicians, even when challenging for the leadership, has taken the safe route. But in this case, with so much at stake and a huge Indian and Pakistani community in Britain watching him closely, that’s probably the best route to take.
