Feature: Ten signpost seats
With the general election only five months away, politics.co.uk takes a look at ten of the constituencies which will indicate which way the result is going on election night.
By Jonathan Moore
Making a few minor assumptions – that the Conservatives hold all their current seats – they will need a uniform swing approaching seven per cent. Forming a majority requires 130 additional seats on their 2005 election performance; the first five after that paint an interesting picture of the kind of constituencies the Tories will have to win to form a government.
We also look at three bellwether seats – Dartford, Chorley and Luton South – which have a history of going the way of the government at election time, the favourite to be the first to call a result – Sunderland Central – which could be the first indicator of the final result and the Conservatives’ best hope of a gain north of the border – Dumfries and Galloway.
Over the line: Targets for a Tory majority
Derby North
Containing the mostly residential half of the city, Derby North is a traditional Labour seat that has flirted with the Conservatives in the past. Tory from 1983 to 1997, it was Labour for the 33 years prior to that and has been for the 12 years since. With incumbent Bob Laxton standing down, his successor will have some real difficulties holding on here and all indications are that the Conservatives will take it.
Kingswood
The Gloucestershire seat of Kingswood actually saw the largest number of people voting for the Labour party in 2005 but because of a significant Conservative vote they only have a majority of less than 8,000. Local indications suggest the Tories will retake the seat they held from 1979 to 1992.
Hyndburn
Labour’s Greg Pope will be stepping down as the Hyndburn MP, having served since 1992, and that change of personnel may be the defining factor as to whether they hold the seat. Had he stayed, they probably would have held on. But with a new face it’s going to be a very close contest and there won’t be much in it either way.
East Renfrewshire
Despite being the only Scottish seat to not undergo boundary changes, the Scottish boundary commission still felt the need to change Eastwood’s name to East Renfrewshire. The seat of Scotland secretary Jim Murphy, this formerly safe Tory seat has been Labour since 1997 but could be the site of major scalp in the next election, though Murphy will hope his high profile and long incumbency will help him to hold on.
West Lancashire
Harold Wilson and Robert Kilroy-Silk both represented the area that is now West Lancashire but incumbent Rosie Cooper doesn’t have quite as high a profile. If she manages to hold on to her seat it will likely only be by the skin of her teeth against some strong Tory support in the rural communities outside of Ormskirk and Skelmersdale.
Bellwethers
Dartford
A bellwether seat on the outskirts of London, Dartford in Kent looks certain to fall to the Tories as a new candidate tries to hold on to Labour’s 706-vote majority. Labour will be expecting something of a mauling here which could see the Conservatives take the largest majority of any party since 1992.
Chorley
The other seat which has gone the government’s way since 1964 is the Lancashire seat of Chorley which sits on the north-west border of Rosie Cooper’s West Lancashire. Incumbent Lindsay Hoyle is in a similar position to her south-west neighbour with large Tory support in the rural areas of her constituency threatening to overturn her 7,625-vote majority.
Luton South
If you count its predecessors Luton and Luton East, Luton South has a bellwether record going back further than those two to 1951. As an MP who came out of the expenses scandal as one of the worst offenders, it’s no surprise incumbent Margaret Moran won’t be standing next time around. This urban seat is traditional Labour fare and with a number of independent candidates – the most notable of which being Esther Rantzen – threatening to split the vote this could surprisingly be a hold for the party, something which looked nigh on impossible when the scandal around Moran broke.
An early indicator
Sunderland South
With Sunderland South abolished there is a competition to see which seat will replace the one which was the first to declare in 1992, 1997, 2001 and 2005. The favourite looks to be Sunderland Central and while the chances of a Conservative victory are slim it’s their best chance in the city with all the Conservative areas drawn into this one seat. Even if they fail to win, Sunderland Central could well be the seat which tells exactly which way the general election will swing.
A Scottish must-win
Dumfries and Galloway
Looking north of the border, where the Conservatives only have one seat, if it’s going to be a good night for them Dumfries and Galloway looks to be one of their best chances for success. Even with the traditional antipathy to the Tories in Scotland Labour only managed to secure a 2,922-vote majority in 2005 and the Conservatives should be expecting to take this one. Failure to do so would signal a bad night for them.
