Poll: Labour pulls ahead under Miliband
By Ian Dunt
Ed Miliband had reason to be cheerful this morning after a Guardian/ICM poll put Labour ahead of the Tories for the first time since 2007.
The party has struggled in the polls since Gordon Brown decided against an early election, but the party is now registering a two-point lead.
The improvement comes from a drop in Conservative performance rather than an improvement in Labour’s support, however.
Labour remained unchanged on 37%, the Tories down two to 35% and the Liberal Democrats unchanged on 18%.
The improvement in Labour’s showing, which come primarily at the Lib Dems’ loss, reflect a growing discomfort at the deficit reduction plan.
Forty-three per cent say the cuts have already gone too far – before the comprehensive spending review is even published – compared to 37% who believe the balance is right.
Those results suggest Mr Miliband has a great deal of political space to set out an alternative stall on the deficit, with the public clearly unsold on Tory arguments that spending needs to be cut very quickly and deeply to reassure the markets.
But he will be worried that his emergence as leader has had no effect on the party’s poll rating at all – suggesting he neither turns off nor inspires voters.
The poll suggests claims of David Miliband’s popularity with voters are somewhat overstated, however. Preference for David over Ed is marginal.
David Cameron remains the clear frontrunner among nearly all party supporters, however. Twenty-four per cent of Labour voters believe Mr Cameron makes the best prime minister, compared to just 52% saying Mr Miliband would.
Eighty nine per cent of Tory voters picked Mr Cameron. Similarly, Liberal Democrat voters also prefer Mr Cameron as prime minister than Nick Clegg.
Interestingly, the idea of coalition seems to have fired the imagination of the Tories. The poll shows that just 50% of the party wants to rule alone while 41% want coalition with the Liberal Democrats.
