Coalition stung in first electoral test
Labour has won the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election, in a result which saw the Tory vote fall apart.
Debbie Abrahams won 14,718 votes to Lib Dem challenger Elwyn Watkins’ 11,160, giving her a majority of 3,558.
Her predecessor, the disgraced Labour MP Phil Woolas, had held the seat for Labour by just 103 votes in May.
Oldham East and Saddleworth: As-it-happened
Conservative candidate Kashif Ali saw his support collapse to just 4,481 – a major slide from the 11,773 he had notched up in May last year.
“It’s a clear message to Mr Cameron and Mr Clegg that they’re cutting too far and they’re cutting too fast,” Labour’s election coordinator Andy Burnham told politics.co.uk.
“That’s the message on the doorstep… I would like to thank people for keeping faith with Labour.”
Oldham East and Saddleworth: Why Labour won
Ms Abrahams used her victory speech to point to the failings of the coalition.
“The by-election result is the first step in a long journey ahead for the Labour party,” she said, to cheers from Labour supporters.
“Mr Cameron, Mr Clegg – you may be watching but now you have to listen. I urge you to listen to the decent people of Oldham East and Saddleworth. Stop your broken promises.”
Oldham East and Saddleworth: Consequences
Liberal Democrat spinners privately conceded they had lost the by-election hours before the final result was declared.
One suggested the result was “a good night for Ed Miliband and a good night for Nick Clegg”.
But the result meant the by-election is yet another blow for the Lib Dems and their leader, who most recently campaigned in the seat on Tuesday.
Mr Clegg said in a statement released shortly after the result: “It was always going to be a big ask to take this seat from Labour, given the circumstances. We are undertaking some enormously difficult decisions because Labour left Britain’s economy in a mess and we are now forced to clean up after them.
“By 2015, I hope that the people of Oldham and Saddleworth will see, like everyone else in the country, that the difficult choices we made were the right ones and that Britain is in better shape than when we entered government.”
While the party failed to win the seat, the result was far better than some had privately feared, due probably to many Conservative voters backing the party as the coalition partner best placed to beat Labour.
It’s final result was actually a 0.4% improvement on its showing during the general election.
The Conservatives were the real victims of the night, falling 14% from their general election result.
The Oldham East and Saddleworth campaign was a complex affair, with a number of unusual factors coming into play.
Turnout stood at 48.06%, down from the 61.2% seen in the general election. That represented good news for Labour, after it was initially feared it could have fallen as low as 40%. Earlier fog and light drizzle were replaced by low cloud and only occasional light rain.
It was felt that affluent Saddleworth constituents were more likely to brave bad weather than those in the deprived communities of Oldham East.
That should have benefited the Liberal Democrat challenger but campaigners suggested the contest had been relatively even until about 18:00 GMT, when Labour’s vote emerged in force.
Frustrations with the coalition – and the popular reaction against the unusual court case ousting Mr Woolas from parliament – made the seat’s electoral dynamics even more complicated.
Sketch: Right and wrong in Oldham East and Saddleworth
Labour had refused to apologise for Mr Woolas’ campaign. Many in the constituency have voiced their support for the former immigration minister, who had built up a substantial personal following during his 13 years as the seat’s MP.
Labour defiant over Woolas apology
Mr Watkins’ strong campaign saw heavy leafleting since the court result against Mr Woolas last November. It was boosted by appearances from Mr Clegg, Danny Alexander and others.
Sketch: Nick Clegg’s lucky dip
Labour leader Ed Miliband also visited the seat, however. Bookmakers placed the opposition party’s candidate Debbie Abrahams as the clear favourite to hold Oldham East before the poll.
Speculation that the Conservative party had sought to bolster Mr Watkins’ prospects, rather than those of its own candidate, has been repeatedly dismissed by the Tory campaign.
Oldham East: Tory candidate denies ‘soft’ campaign
Mr Ali pointed to a visit from David Cameron, breaking the usual convention that prime ministers do not campaign in by-elections, to back up his claim.
Oldham East: What the Muslim community is really thinking
His campaign manager, Pendle MP Andy Stephenson, said a combination of being “heavily squeezed” and low turnout had hit the Tories.
