Comment: The immigration mismatch
Ministers have talked the talk on immigration. Now it’s time for them to – well, you know the cliché.
That’s the problem, isn’t it? Politicians promising to clamp down on immigration is about as unoriginal as it gets.
Especially Conservative ones. The general election campaign saw right-wing candidates gently massaging ordinary people’s concerns up and down the country. Concerned voters weren’t bigots. Everyone could understand the difference apart from one very unfortunate man. No, Tory candidates explained, your views reflect very real and legitimate concerns. And we’re going to take action.
Their campaign mode approach was very neatly done, extracting just the right amount of support to this thoroughly difficult issue without actually descending into an entirely reactionary or counterproductive position. Now they’re in government, the Conservatives have to live up to their rhetoric. Labour experienced the immigration headache on the doorstep. The Tories dodged that bullet – but are now paying the price.
The pledge to reduce annual net migration “from hundreds of thousands to tens of thousands” is a big ask. Initial attention focused on the new cap on non-EU workers. This was an important issue: for a while businesses were jittery about the practical restrictions the cap would impose on staff transfers. Despite some mutterings from Vince Cable, the immigration cap is now being implemented as planned, albeit with a exception for those earning over £150,000. Debate has faded as a result. But it was never going to be the main event, for non-EU workers are only a very small part of the picture.
Instead attention is turning to the higher education sector, and the large numbers of students coming from abroad. There are a lot of these – just over 270,000 in 2009. But, as a report from the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) explains today, around four out of five of these have left the country five years on. Six per cent were still studying, leaving 15% unaccounted for.
That 15% has a lot to answer for. “Bogus students not only add to net migration, they undercut the pay of British workers while dodgy colleges damage the reputation of British education,” Sir Andrew Green of campaigning group Migrationwatch said. He backs the government’s proposed clampdown on the student visa system, currently being developed by ministers. They’ve been sifting through tens of thousands of consultation responses and will get back to us shortly.
But the 15% is a maximum figure, the IPPR explains. Sarah Mulley, an associate director, explained that Universities UK has a two per cent non-compliance stat which is more significant. This is based on the number of students tracked through the system who no longer have the right to remain in the UK, but are not yet recorded as having left. It doesn’t mean they haven’t.
For now, at least, the rhetoric continues. It’s now tinged by a hint of pragmatism, however, as if Damian Green – the shadow home secretary who is now faced with the practical reality of turning those hundreds of thousands into tens of thousands – contemplates what to do next.
“Student visas account for the majority of non-EU migration to this country,” he notes. “We have to reform this route if we are to meet our target of reducing net migration.” The logic is undeniable.
But can they actually do it? All parties agree there is scope to cut down on a number of those “rogue colleges”. Green points out that a sample of student studying at private institutions found that over a quarter of them could not be accounted for.
It’s not going to be enough. Even if the government succeeds in a 100% clampdown on abuse of the student visa system, the maths simply won’t stand up. Only if the government begins slashing the number of international students, hitting the already ailing higher education sector, will any kind of progress begin to be achieved. Universities have already had a tough year. They may have to be trampled on again if the coalition is to walk the walk on immigration.
It’s hard to resist the lure of clichés, stock phrases, what people expect to hear. That has been ministers’ response to immigration. Now it comes to actually implementing their claims, they’re facing all the uncomfortable difficulties of reality. Not being able to deliver their promises will only serve to push further away those already alienated from their politicians. The coalition is being pushed further and further into an unpleasantly tight corner. What comes next is unlikely to be pleasant.
The opinions in politics.co.uk’s Speakers Corner are those of the author and are no reflection of the views of the website or its owners.
