These are tantalising times for Rishi Sunak. His problem predecessor-but-one, who has majored on manoeuvring since his failed leadership run in October, has entered self-imposed exile, his House of Commons days — for now at least — behind him. The problem is that he has done so in typical Johnsonian style, with a flailing broadside on the prime minister’s record and a parting gift by way of three by-elections.
But with Westminster all a quiver, Sunak sought to side-step the furore on Monday morning by launching London Tech Week up the road at the Queen Elizabeth II Centre. He warned that Britain must act fast to avoid being eclipsed as the technology capital of Europe. Still, the real issue eclipsing the government’s agenda was the case of Boris Johnson and, in particular, the row over who excised Nadine Dorries, Nigel Adams and Alok Sharma from his honours list.
Asked for his version of events, Sunak told London’s assembled tech bros on Monday: “Boris Johnson asked me to do something that I wasn’t prepared to do, because I didn’t think it was right. That was either overrule the [House of Lords Appointments Commission] or to make promises to people. Now, I wasn’t prepared to do that. … And if people don’t like that then tough”. It’s fighting talk as far as Sunak is concerned; the PM has tended to baulk from personal attacks even when they appear politically propitious.
But barely had Sunak departed the stage before Boris’ team briefed: “Rishi Sunak is talking rubbish. To honour these peerages it was not necessary to overrule HOLAC — but simply to ask them to renew their vetting, which was a mere formality”. And so marks the latest phase in the Johnson-Sunak psychodrama, the sum total of which will be three by-elections: one in Johnson’s Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency; another in Nadine Dorries’ Mid Bedfordshire seat; and the last in Nigel Adams’ Selby and Ainsty seat.
But as we digest the headlines and read the blow-by-blow accounts of Johnson and Sunak’s very public feud, it is worth considering how damaging these developments will be for the prime minister in the long run.
Ultimately, if the cost of exorcising the spectre of Boris Johnson from the parliamentary party is three by-elections, even if we assume Johnson, Dorries and Adams are replaced by opposition MPs, the PM may well be pleased. After all, would two more Labour and one more Liberal Democrat backbenchers do more damage than three rebellious Conservative MPs, comprised of one ex-PM, one ex-cabinet colleague and a former minister, each intent on stoking backbench discontent?
In fact, one wonders if this episode might provide an opportunity for Sunak to undertake a soft reboot of his premiership. After all, Johnson did get a few things right in his resignation statement. The former PM said the Conservative party “needs urgently to recapture its sense of momentum” and “recover its mojo and its ambition”. These are facts with which the current occupant of No 10 will be keenly aware.
Sunak unleashed
We know Sunak has always been a politician in a rush. He entered parliament in 2015, government in 2018, cabinet a year later and then 10 Downing Street in 2022. But as PM, the fast-moving politician has somewhat stalled.
There’s been times when events have seemed to swing in his favour: the Windsor Framework followed by Britain’s entry into the CPTPP trade deal stand out, and even made a dent in Keir Starmer’s polling advantage. But such work has often found itself scuppered by hostile actors with their own agenda, be they the Boris-backers or speakers at the National Conservatism Conference. It’s not only led to a lack of momentum but a sense of aimlessness and, even, of weakness.
The same could be said for Sunak’s trip last week to Washington and the newly-negotiated “Atlantic declaration”. The plan, while some way short of the US-UK trade deal promised post-Brexit, is said to bolster economic security and transatlantic cooperation in response to threats from China and Russia.
Moreover, ahead of Tech Week’s launch on Monday, the US president had warm words for Sunak’s idea that the UK could become home to a regulator on artificial intelligence. Sunak has long-suggested the UK could act as a power broker on new technology — Biden’s comments were therefore a welcome move for Downing Street.
But Sunak had barely had a day to enjoy his Washington success before his predecessor, wounded and angry, re-entered centre stage. Had things gone according to Downing Street’s designs, the prime minister would have led the news agenda on Monday with some trademark tech comments fresh off the praise President Biden had lavished on the UK’s technological prowess.
There is a growing consensus that AI technology could make as much progress in the next 18 months as it has up to now. “This is a moment when the contours of the world for the rest of this century are being set”, chancellor Jeremy Hunt said Monday. “The tectonic plates of technology are shifting”, Sunak argued. It opens a world of problems, but also possibilities. For the prime minister, it may also be the perfect timescale for an election in late 2024.
Back in 2021 as chancellor, Sunak told the Conservative conference “AI has the potential to transform whole economies and societies”. And in February, Sunak put science and technology at the heart of his pre-election growth strategy by creating a new Whitehall department. Tech progress is manifestly something close to the PM’s heart, and he desperately wants his action on AI to cut through.
Post-Bojo Mojo
It’s time for the Conservatives to rediscover their “mojo”, says Johnson. Rishi Sunak agrees and technology may be the perfect issue on which the government can be seen as mustering momentum. This week Sir Keir Starmer will also attend an AI event as part of London tech week to set out Labour’s approach. One wonders if the 60-year-old Labour leader will seem as much a master of his brief as the 42-year-old PM.
Then, with Biden’s blessing, Sunak will host a summit on the risks and regulation of AI later this year. The summit will consider the risks of the technology and discuss how they can be mitigated through internationally coordinated action. It means the PM is one step closer to London becoming the home of an international regulatory body, where countries can pool funds for AI research
Of course, Sunak’s tech blitz is yet to light up his party, but if it can be marked out as an area where the PM has the upper hand on Labour (such issues are deemed to be few and far between) it may just be welcomed. The diplomatic success in Washington, the emphasis on Sunak’s command of detail — both political and technological; AI also clearly marks the PM out from his careering predecessor.
So after Johnson, Sunak might just see AI as a way to win back credibility for his government and justify his reputation as a competent, problem-solving administrator.
